Residents are not flocking to St. Lucie County like they were a few years ago, but it was still ranked as fourth fastest growing housing market in Florida in the state, according to the data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The county grew by 12,754 people, or 5.3 percent, to 252,724 residents, according to the Census, which tracked the population from July 2005 to July 2006.

The year before that, St. Lucie welcomed more than 14,000 newcomers.

“We definitely need an opportunity to catch our breath,” said St. Lucie County Commission Chairman Chris Craft. “The growth came so quickly in the past few years we just weren’t able to make things happen as quickly as we could have or should have.”

Okeechobee County is far behind St. Lucie in terms of its annual growth rate — which dropped from 1.8 to 1.7 — but the county has grown a lot since 2000, when it only had 35,910 residents. From 2000 to 2006, the rural county grew by 12 percent to 40,406 residents.

As the price and availability of land on the Treasure Coast and the South Florida housing market in general continues pushing growth into western Martin and St. Lucie counties, Okeechobee has attracted more investors.

Regionally, the declining growth rate is linked to a cooling housing market and soaring Florida mortgage costs, as well as a relatively small retiree population. But just give it time.

“Right now our retirement population is the fairly small generation in-between the World War II generation and the baby boomers, people born in the 1930s,” said Lance deHaven-Smith, a public policy professor at Florida State University. “But when the first baby boomers start retiring in two years, the growth is going to be enormous.”

Those 65 and older now account for 18 percent of Florida’s 17 million residents, but by 2025 they will make up 26 percent of the population.

“It’s an avalanche waiting to happen,” he said.

Until then, the St. Lucie housing market likely will not come to a standstill. The Treasure Coast region is now home to 522,217 people, 15,608 more than previously recorded by the Census.

While growth rates along the Treasure Coast fell across the board during 2005-06, the region’s 3.1 percent growth average is well about the 1.8 state average. Martin County dropped from 1.2 percent to 0.1 percent and Indian River County fell slightly from 2.3 to 2.2.

But just as Florida mortgage loan demand from year to year doesn’t tell the whole story, these year-to-year comparisons do not necessarily indicate an overall slow-growth trend in the region.

“You can’t call a trend based on a couple of points. Population growth is not always on a completely upward trajectory. Sometimes it flattens a bit, sometimes it dips. It can’t just keep going up and up,” said Greg Vaday, development coordinator of the Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council.

“What we’re probably seeing is a reflection of the overall economic condition of the country and certainly the slow down in the housing market.”

But with a growing economy and coastal living appeal, and South Florida mortgage loan rates still hovering near record lows, the Treasure Coast is sure to continue attracting a steady stream of new residents, most of whom come here for a new job or to retire.

SOURCE: TCPalm

$6 billion.

That’s a lot of money. It also represents the worth of property that changed hands in St. Lucie County last year. As one might expect, however, this sort of boom couldnt last forever. Real estate experts agree that fewer Florida home loans will be used for investment purposes in the area this year.

There’s mounting evidence that speculative investment has begun to taper off, while surplus homes are lingering on the market in some Treasure Coast neighborhoods, speakers said at the annual Research Coast Outlook Conference.

A statewide Florida home loan trend

The trend is becoming clear across the state, where the number of building permits and home starts has been outpacing the number of households since 2002, Orlando-based economist Hank Fishkind told the crowd of about 240.

“Obviously there’s a housing bubble in Florida. Come on, of course there is,” he said.

But owners shouldn’t fret too much: Much of the state’s housing glut is in South Florida condominiums, and the excess local homes shouldn’t stay on the market too long, Fishkind said.

The Treasure Coast’s housing surplus is more pronounced in St. Lucie than Martin County, but Fishkind predicted healthy population growth should be enough to eat up the excess within nine months or a year.

Port St. Lucie’s growth rate - which the U.S. Census last year deemed the nation’s highest among cities larger than 100,000 residents - is holding strong. By the end of this year, Port St. Lucie is on track to hit 150,000 people, City Manager Don Cooper said.

“That makes us the largest city between Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville,” he said.

Reasons behind city growth

Why is St. Lucie growing so much more swiftly than Martin or Indian River counties? More stringent growth restrictions in the neighboring counties are driving builders into St. Lucie, Fishkind said.

Most of the county’s new development will emerge west of I-95 in communities including Tradition, where commercial growth will change the city’s image as a bedroom community, Cooper said. Central to that plan is the city and Tradition’s work to attract The Burnham Institute, a La Jolla, Calif.-based medical research organization scouting a satellite campus in Florida.

Despite the projected Florida real estate slowdown, Fishkind said all three counties - which are dubbing themselves the Research Coast to lure new business - should continue experiencing dramatic population and economic growth.

Many people seeking a Florida home loan are ending up in this area.