Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
A few years ago, the Collier County housing market ranked as the second-fastest-growing county in the nation. But U.S. Census figures set for release today reveal that Collier is close to falling out of the top 100 fastest-growing counties in the country.
In fact, Collier is now the 97th fastest-growing county, based on growth from 2000 to 2006.
The county had a population of 251,377 in 2000 and that population has grown to 314,649 as of July 2006, a 25 percent increase. Between 2005 and 2006, Collier grew from 307,242 people to 314,649, a percentage increase of 2.4 percent.
Bob Murray, chairman of the economic development council of the East Naples Civic Association, expressed surprise at the numbers and lack of Florida mortgage activity recently in the area.
“Quite frankly I expected us to drop, but not all the way to 97th,” he said. “From 2000 to 2004 there was a lot of growth. In the last two years it’s really slowed down.”
Fewer people coming to Collier has created a situation in which many homes aren’t selling, Murray said.
There’s a positive to that. With Florida home prices dropping, families now are able to buy homes that couldn’t afford a home here before, Murray said.
“I’ve watched people drop $50,000 off the price of homes they are selling,” he said.
However, with so many homes up for sale, Collier could remain in a real estate slump longer than a lot of other communities.
“I have 18 units up for sale,” Murray said. “They’ve been up for sale for six to eight months. People aren’t buying because the cost is too high.”
Tammie Nemecek, president of the Economic Development Council of Collier County, said the drop in growth is occurring statewide and it is particularly noticeable among younger people.“What we’re seeing is a direct result of costs going up when it comes to housing,” Nemecek said, bu more needs to be done to encourage affordable housing, she said.
Matt Hudson, a Realtor who is also a Golden Gate fire district commissioner, said a number of factors are causing people to avoid Collier County.
“If you look at the time frame in 2004 and 2005 when we got whacked by eight hurricanes, our area was very much tainted in the minds of people who might move here,” Hudson said. “The hurricanes also created the homeowners insurance issue, which led to increased home prices. That was a pretty good one-two punch.”
Many people decided they’d rather move to Arizona after that, Hudson said.
There also has been a significant increase in the cost of construction with steel and concrete prices going up and impact fees continuing to rise, he said. Also, the rapid growth of a few years ago probably isn’t sustainable in any market, Hudson said.
“Being in the Top 10 may have hurt as much as it helped because we had to provide so much infrastructure,” Hudson said. “Where we’re at now may be more realistic. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see us back in the (top) 30s again in the next few years.”
Despite the slowdown, Hudson still expects to see people moving into the eastern part of the county in the next few years.
“Ave Maria is still being built,” he said, referring to the Catholic university and surrounding town being built in the eastern part of the county. “Until we turn off the sun, people will still want to move to [the Southwest Florida housing market].”
Chuck Mohlke, chairman of the Collier Democratic Party, cautioned against assuming the census figures are completely accurate in terms of measuring Florida home mortgage loan demand. Growth explosions in the past have surprised some people because of the difficulty of registering and counting certain minorities.
“We have categories of population that have historically been undercounted,” Mohlke said, singling out the Hispanic and Creole-speaking populations as groups that may not have been accurately counted during the 2000 census.
“If these populations were not counted properly in 2000 they are still being unaccounted for now,” Mohlke said. “It won’t be fixed until the 2010 census.”
Click here to read the rest of this Naples Daily News article.