Is Bradenton-Sarasota now a buyer’s market? That’s the question potential Florida home loan seekers need to ask themsevles after seeing the recent numbers in the area.

Existing home sales in the region took a 40 percent tumble in June, while the median sales price fell $10,000 from a year ago.

Figures released Tuesday by the Florida Association of Realtors showed a mix bag of results in the state, however. While Bradenton-Sarasota was one of seven Florida markets to see prices falter, cities such as Gainesville and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater continued to see double digit appreciation, as their real estate values soared.

Despite the fall in prices, Bradenton-Sarasota remained the fifth most expensive place to purchase a home in Florida, with the median price settling at $326,800. Statewide, the median was $257,800. As a result, it’s difficult to determine how feasible it is for the average consumer to afford a Florida home loan in the sector, even with this recent decrease.

Reasons behind sales drop

Real estate officials say the rising cost of insurance, higher taxes, higher fuel costs and escalating Florida mortgage rates are just some of the reasons for the sales slump.

Unrest in the Middle East also has had an effect, said Dan Forbes, broker and co-owner of Premier Team Realty.

“It effects people psychologically. Markets, even the housing market, doesn’t like uncertainty,” Forbes said.

The market isn’t all doom and gloom, however. The number of homes being put on the market seems to have leveled off, leading some to think the worst may be over.

“We’re starting to see that we’re reaching the top of the inventory cycle. If it decreases throughout the rest of the year, it’ll stabilize the market,” Forbes said.

While prices are leveling off and people are listing homes at more realistic prices, Scholfield Realty’s Barbara Edwards said she is still seeing people choose to leave the area rather than deal with rising insurance and taxes.

“We’re seeing a lot of people, whole families, moving to places like Tennessee, Georgia and North Carolina,” Edwards said.

This time of the year is usually busy with local buyers looking to make lateral moves, but that hasn’t been the case this year, said Tierney Foster of Re/Max Gulfstream. Most of the buyers she’s seen taking out Florida home loans have been people who are moving here for employment purposes or to be closer to family.

“We’ve had a good July but it’s not what we’re used to,” Foster said.

Nevertheless, home sales are expected to ease modestly for the remainder of the year, according to a National Association of Realtors analysis. It STILL should be the third best sales year on record.

An article in the Sarasota Herald Tribune recently reported on Jake Morse.

He lives with his grandparents in Venice and worked as a car valet at the local hospital - until he recently decided to become a Florida real estate agent.

Many may question this decision because the Sarasota-Bradenton market just witnessed a 48 percent decline in January closings. Moreover, there are three times more homes for sale now than a year ago.

“The market itself is very vast and growing,” Morse said. “You don’t have to go more than 60 miles to get to a beach. That means a lot of waterfront homes and properties, so that brings up the value of the real estate industry, really.”

Sounds like someone could have been reading a certain book about real estate investing.

Though the Gulf Coast real estate market has clearly slowed from last year’s fevered pitch, it has not stopped new recruits like Morse from jumping into the game.

The newcomers face stiff competition from the existing army of agents whose numbers have more than doubled in the past five years. If the sales pace remains this slow in coming months, a game that has been a such a generally win-win situation could turn into survival of the fittest.

The number of real estate agents who pay for membership in the Sarasota Association of Realtors has risen 109 percent since early 2001, to a total of 4,861.

It is the same story down south - even more exaggerated - with the Punta Gorda-Port Charlotte-North Port Association of Realtors showing a 123 percent five-year increase in paying members to 1,648. Statewide, the number has doubled to 154,558 in five years.

“As hot as the real estate market has been in the last few years, we have had lots of new members,” said Marla Martin, spokeswoman for the Florida Association of Realtors.

But if residential real estate has peaked or plateaued, it is quite possible that the number of agents has peaked or plateaued as well and that the game is going to get a lot tougher for those who just now start playing.

“There is no question that people who are not well-prepared are going to go by the wayside,” said Bob Hogue, owner of the Bob Hogue School of Real Estate. His operation is one of the largest in the state, with classes and marketing efforts reaching from New Port Richey to Port Charlotte.

For realtors, just like individuals, the state of Florida home loans is something to keep an eye on. Their jobs depend on it.

The Bradenton Herald has good news for prospective home buyers: You could be the major beneficiaries of a changing real estate market.

Compared to a year earlier, home sales dropped 34 percent in the Bradenton-Sarasota market in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The median sales price rose 30 percent to a whopping $342,700 during that time, however, keeping Bradenton-Sarasota among the five most expensive areas in Florida, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. But with more properties on the market, sellers will have to be more realistic in their pricing going forward. This is a true sign of a buyer’s market.

“Artificial prices seemed to outdistance buyers’ desires… We’re not in the frenzied market we were in a few months back,” said Richard Taylor, owner of Taylor Realty Group and president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. “Real estate is more of a longer-term picture than the numbers show.”

Manatee is still a prime destination, and while home prices and sales may taper off, local experts say the market is reasonably healthy and that Manatee County is still flush with investment opportunities. Agents have seen business pick back up since the slow fourth quarter, and some firms are using the slowdown as a good chance to get on top of their games.

“We’re using this time to catch our breath a bit and doing some extensive training,” said Dave Eckel, owner of Wagner Realty in Bradenton, who sees the lull as temporary. “It’s going to pick up - and we’re going to be prepared,” Eckel said.

Eckel’s agents have achieved success in January and February after a slow holiday season. Local experts think turn in the market has stabilized prices, and that is healthy step for the community. Floridians can only handle double-digit annual appreciation for so long. A more traditional market, in which buyers have the opportunity to take their time and make careful decisions without engaging in all-out bidding wars, should lead to legions of satisfied owners.

Statewide, despite rising Florida home loan rates and signs of slowing economic growth, homes increased 29 percent in median price to $246,300 in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The interest rates of conventional U.S. mortgages have since risen even more, and are currently averaging 6.37 percent. A decline in single-family home sales is consistent with rising Florida mortgage rates and a pause in overall U.S. growth, according to David Scott, director of the Dr. Phillips Institute for the Study of American Business Activity and professor of finance at the University of Central Florida.