Ocala Housing Market Has Hit Bottom, Expert Believes
The national, state and local economies have pretty much “bottomed out,” and a gradual recovery is now likely, a prominent Florida economist said Friday.
Speaking before the Ocala-Marion County Economic Development Corp., Henry Fishkind said the nation was “almost at a recession at this point,” but that indicators point to a slow recovery next year.
“Things are not as bad as people claim,” he said. “This is going to be a soft economy. I don’t think it’s going to be a recessionary economy.”
While consumer spending has dropped significantly, Fishkind said, the Florida housing market appears to be stabilizing.
“Housing’s down, but it’s not going to go any further,” he said.
The weak dollar means U.S. exports are increasing, which helps the balance of trade, he said. And low inflation gives the Federal Reserve Board leeway to cut interest rates in the near future.
While falling home prices have reduced the number of people moving down to Florida from Northern states, Marion County is insulated from the slowdown because much of the inward migration here comes from South Florida.
The Marion County economy is fairly well-balanced between manufacturing and service jobs, a factor which also helps protect it from periodic shocks in any one sector, he said.
The Florida Legislature’s effort to reform property insurance laws through the state-funded Citizens Property Insurance Corp. was an effective short-term fix that stabilized rising property insurance rates.
But more changes are needed to keep rates and coverage availability stable in the future amid high Florida mortgage costs, he said.
Locally, housing prices will probably take 18-24 months to recover from recent declines, but the market isn’t likely to go significantly lower.
“You’re not seeing a sustained downward contraction in home prices. You’re seeing the bottom,” he said. “Markets have already stabilized.”
The key to the Ocala housing market is that demand didn’t really decrease, he said. Instead, overbuilding resulted in too large a supply.
Commercial real estate values in the county are still strong, and Florida mortgage rates remain low, giving hope for the remainder of the year.
“The commercial side looks a bit better because the commercial side isn’t overbuilt,” Fishkind said. “You’re going to see some significant gains, because population growth is going to continue to accelerate.”
Fishkind & Associates, which has offices in Orlando, Naples and Port St. Lucie, has done a lot of work forecasting and analyzing the local market and economy, including the volatile real estate market.
SOURCE: Ocala Star-Banner
