The Fourth Quarter Florida Housing Market Report, Numbers
In the fourth quarter of 2006, the Florida housing market continued to mirror the national trend, reflecting slower sales, stabilizing median prices and higher inventory levels of homes available for sale in many markets.
Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 37,177 during the three-month period, a decrease of 28 percent compared to 51,310 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). Traditionally, Florida home mortgage loan applications often ease during the fourth quarter as a result of holidays, cooler weather and other influences.
The statewide existing-home median sales price remained stable at $242,100 in the fourth quarter; a year ago, it was $245,600 for a slight 1 percent decrease. In 2001, the fourth-quarter statewide median sales price was $128,400, which reflects an increase of 88.5 percent over the five-year period.
To gain insight into current trends in Florida’s real estate industry, the University of Florida’s Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. While acknowledging the adjusting housing market, the fourth quarterly survey results found no evidence of Florida home prices overall dropping long-term statewide.
“One important indicator of the real estate market is occupancy rates, and these appear to be stable or increasing in most markets, including apartments, office buildings, retail space, and industrial warehouse and distribution space,” said Dr. Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.
“Employment is very good and the fundamentals that drive rental income and occupancy are still very strong,” he said. “In addition, [Florida mortgage rates] have remained perhaps a little more stable than some people expected.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed- rate mortgage averaged 6.25 percent in fourth quarter 2006; one year earlier, it averaged 6.22 percent.
The latest industry outlook from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), calls for a steady rise in existing home sales following the fourth quarter. NAR Chief Economist David Lereah says that while “home sales may appear weak in comparison with the record surge in 2005, they will be sustained at historically high levels that are in line with long-term demand.”
