Florida Keys Experience Population Decline; Mortgage Costs to Blame

Robin Boyle arrived in the Florida Keys two years ago, enthused about a new job and new life in paradise. Now she’s moving to Michigan.

She imagined that she and her husband, who lived in Key West in the 1960s, would enjoy a slower pace of life before retirement. Florida home mortgage costs being what they are, however, the couple couldn’t afford more than a trailer or an apartment.

In a state where growth is booming, and the population is even supposed to double by 2060 the Florida Keys are losing residents. Monroe County, which comprises the Florida Keys, has lost population every year between 2000 and 2005, dwindling by 4 percent to just 76,329 residents.

By contrast, up near Jacksonville, Flagler County was the nation’s fastest-growing county during the same period, its population surging by 53 percent to 76,410 residents. Across the state, the increase has driven up almost all land values and lured new businesses.

But in this tropical paradise, the traffic is thinner than in the rest of the state, and at least one elementary school in Key West is expected to close it doors forever. The islands are also losing workers vital to the economy, including health care workers and police officers.

What’s behind the population drop? It’s not that the carefree lifestyle of the Keys has lost its appeal, says Robbie Hopcraft, who owns a Florida mortgage company and has lived in Key West for 14 years. It’s that it’s simply too expensive for most Americans.

The population decline in the Keys is the result in part of geography and growth management. A string of islands offers only so much land upon which build, and strict building codes have also driven up the price of housing.

But more worrisome to many residents is an upswing in hurricane activity that battered Florida in 2004 and 2005. Local property taxes and Florida home insurance rates have skyrocketed since then, prompting many people to pack up and leave.

“What you see in Key West is a compressed kind of microcosm of problems that unfold over a longer period of time on the mainland,” Maureen Ogle, historian and author, says. “When the price of insurance goes up, it’s going to affect a place like Key West a lot faster and harder.”

Hopcraft describes the Florida home insurance spike in the Keys as a crisis.

His policy on his two-bedroom, 800-square-foot home has risen to $8,000 a year. A year ago, he joined with other residents to establish a grass-roots lobby organization, Fair Insurance Rates in Monroe, or FIRM.

“Most of the people here are working people. They have dive shops and charter fishing boats and lobster fishing boats, or they own their own restaurant or business,” he said. “A lot of them are struggling.”

Yet many who work in the Keys can’t afford to live there.

In a county where home prices begin at $500,000, developers are replacing trailer parks and locally owned motels with high-end condos and hotels.

To create more nearby affordable housing options, Monroe County leaders plan to offer county-sponsored housing for its teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other workers.