Population Growth Slows in Florida

A U.S. census report released Friday shows that the boom for the Sunshine State has slowed, with Florida growing only 1.8 percent in 2006 after back-to-back years of adding more than 2 percent to the population.

So, is this just a blip?

“No,” said Stefan Rayer, research demographer at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “It’s back to normal.”

In 2005, Florida was ranked No. 4 in the list of fast-growing states, just behind Arizona, Nevada and Idaho. This year, the state slips to No. 9. It’s not overly encouraging for those hoping for a Florida mortgage loan boom.

Fabio Naranjo, senior research associate with the Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions at Florida Atlantic University, said economics is playing a big role.

“We have seen an outflow of population,” Naranjo said. “There are people from southern counties like Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach who have been moving to other southern states like Georgia and Alabama where housing costs are lower.”

Florida’s existing-home median price tops $240,000. Costs are higher in the South Florida housing market, where many homes are fetching $350,000.

On top of a Florida mortgage, for those who do buy, insurance costs have skyrocketed. Some premiums are up by more than 25 percent since the 2004 hurricane season.

The impact is starting to ripple throughout the state: home sales are down more than 20 percent, school enrollment shrank in the fall student count, and state government is preparing for a revenue drop based on population projections.

“Florida is still strong economically, and that will continue,” said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “But the momentum has slowed.”

Palm Beach County this year started requiring developers to limit some new home prices for low- and middle-income buyers and other communities are creating incentive programs for building for affordable housing in Florida.

The state’s population during the next decade may not increase as much as it did during the past 10 years, but it won’t be as dramatic a decline as some predict, said South Florida real estate analyst Bradley Hunter.

“Once the affordability gets resolved, that will help bring the families back,” Hunter said.

Florida remains the fourth-most populous state, with 18.1 million people. The state’s population should double to 36 million people and development could include 7 million more acres of rural land, according to a University of Florida study produced for the growth watchdog group 1,000 Friends of Florida.

Allowing development to claim too much of Florida’s natural, open spaces drove people away from the state, said Drew Martin, conservation chairman of the Sierra Club’s Loxahatchee Group. The state and local governments need to preserve more land and keep development from sprawling into rural areas.

“The more we build, the less desirable the state is,” Martin said Friday.

From there, Florida home loan activity ought to return.