Worst of South Florida Housing Slump is Over

There are probably as many opinions on the future of the South Florida housing market as there are diet options available. But one voice, at least, sees the worst part of this year’s slump soon being over.

“I think you’ve seen the majority of the pullback,” said Brian Tonry, vice president of McGraw-Hill Construction.

Tonry spoke last week at a conference in Coconut Grove sponsored by e-Builder, a Fort Lauderdale-based technology company.

During the first nine months of 2006, Florida’s single-family housing starts dropped 25 percent, while multifamily starts fell 10 percent, Tonry said.

Nationwide, single-family starts were off 14 percent, and the multifamily sector dropped 4 percent. It’s not just Florida mortgage demand, therefore, that’s been slacking recently.

Tonry expects the state numbers to mirror the more-optimistic national figures in 2007 before rebounding the following year. At that point, sales should pick back up, as well as demand for Florida home loans.

“Basically, in 2008 things will start to uptick,” he said. “We’ll see some single-digit growth in the latter part of 2008 into 2009.”

In a report released Oct. 27, McGraw-Hill Construction predicted a 1 percent decline in overall U.S. construction spending next year, the first falloff since 1991. The culprit: the swift decline of the nation’s housing market.

Tonry’s comments echo others in the industry that suggest recovery is on the way.

Moody’s Economy.com of West Chester, Pa., doesn’t foresee any more price declines for existing homes in the Palm Beach County housing market. Broward prices could drop slightly through the third quarter of 2007, according to the research firm.