Lee County Officials Weigh Options For Handling Predicted Housing Market Growth

Lee County is going to grow.

No one disputes that assumption.

How fast is it going to grow?

That, no one’s quite sure about.

How much taxpayer money needs to be spent to get ready for that growth? Now you’re really stretching for answers. Figuring that out is less than an exact science. Schools, for example, have to be planned, but by the time they’re built, they’re likely to cost more than anybody estimated.
Other possibilities? They may be outdated even before they’re finished. Or there may not be enough people to use the new buildings.

“We’ve had to find more money to keep paying for projects,” said Pete Winton, Lee County assistant manager. “We’ve had to get creative.”

Projects are prioritized and built as funding becomes available. Winton said the county uses a five-year plan, a complex estimate process and available revenue to set priorities. Often, those plans change.

Local home builder construction costs skyrocketed in the wake of Hurricane Charley in 2004 and again after a dearth of storms in 2005.

Combined with the then-sizzling Southwest Florida housing market, a high level of competition persisted for building materials and labor costs.

“That wasn’t poor planning on our part. Nobody anticipated the drastic increase in construction costs over such a short period of time,” Winton said.

The region must deal with growth properly, because there will likely be no repreive. Stanley Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, said he has seen no economic or population indicators that suggest a long-term slowdown in growth.

“I don’t really see anything on the horizon that would imply very large changes from what we have seen in the past. Our projections continue to show strong growth in Florida, and certainly Southwest Florida has been growing rapidly,” Smith said.

Florida mortgage loan applications are expected to bounce back in this climate of low rates and declining home prices. Also, affordable housing measures are being pursued and implemented across the region, albeit more slowly than some would hope for.

Lee County Smart Growth Director Wayne Daltry is confident that the county will be able to handle an influx of new students and prosper to boot.

“The impact fees and increased home values enable us to create school space for people who don’t live here,” he said. “That little bubble is temporary and a first for us in a long time.”

In Southwest Florida, impact fees are common, one-time charges billed to new construction to help pay for the county’s growth. Still, planners say more alternatives to construction are needed to meet tomorrow’s needs.

State economists cautioned lawmakers in Tallahassee on Tuesday that the real estate tax revenues of recent years are drying up because of a slowdown in the housing boom. Still, opinions are mixed on whether a cooling housing market could provide an opportunity for projects to get cheaper labor and materials.

Lee County Public Works Director James Lavender has seen more interest from contractors and a slowdown in the rising cost of raw materials. But with commercial real estate construction going strong, the outcome is uncertain.