Cape Coral, Naples, Sarasota Among Leading Declining Housing Markets

In many areas of the Florida housing market, prices will get worse before they get better - according to an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com.

In the survey of 379 metro areas, the study’s authors project that nearly 20 areas eventually could experience a “crash,” or a decline of more than 10 percent from peak to trough. The most affected cities in the Sunshine State will be Cape Coral, Naples and Sarasota.

In those areas, therefore, the time to seek out a Florida mortgage is now because sellers will be anxious to sign off on a contract before things get worse. Nationwide, the study forecasts a 3.6 percent decline in the sales price of existing homes.

The table below shows only those markets among the 100 largest by population that are forecast to have declines. In an analysis that considered Florida home mortgage rates, the local job market and other factors, the study makes projections on when those markets would peak, when they would hit their worst point, and what the total decline would be.

Cape Coral FL -18.6 Q4 2005 (Peak) Q2 2007 (Bottom)

Sarasota FL -14.0 Q4 2005 Q3 2007 Naples FL -13.8 Q4 2005 Q3 2007

In other words: You may be best served to wait until the second quarter of next year to take out a Florida mortgage loan for a residence in Cape Coral. This is when prices will be at their most affordable.