Housing Decline Means Lower School Enrollment
Across Florida, school principals, real estate developers and economic development officials are scrambling to solve a troubling mystery:
Where did the kids go?
Across a state plagued by shortages of teachers and classrooms, school-enrollment figures show declines or no growth this fall. Palm Beach County’s school system saw its first enrollment drop since 1971 — a 1.9 percent decline to 170,582 students.
Broward County, surrounding Fort Lauderdale, lost 3.1 percent of its students. Growth in Orlando and Tampa has slowed to roughly half its previous rate. Overall, the number of students in Florida public schools now is expected to grow by just 30,000 students to 2.67 million, well below recent annual increases of about 65,000.
The reason: A cooling Florida housing market.
With the median existing-home price up 90 percent since 2001 to $248,400 in August, housing costs are pricing young families out of the state.
Ranking fourth in population, Florida remains one of the fastest-growing places in the country, adding an average of 1,000 new residents a day to its total of 18.3 million. But the state’s tried-and-true formula of plentiful jobs, abundant sunshine and low taxes suddenly isn’t enough to hold onto thousands of families as speculators and retirees snap up homes.
What happens is a shrinking supply of affordable housing for newcomers who traditionally pumped up school enrollment. And despite being spared so far this year, there are signs of growing weariness following eight hurricanes that plowed into the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005, causing insurance premiums rates to skyrocket and some residents to move away.
Last November, Kevin and Christy Kilpatrick left Plantation, near Fort Lauderdale, for rural Lawrenceburg, Tenn., to escape housing costs, as well as congestion and storms.
In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma knocked out their power and water for more than three weeks; the next month, they bought their four-bedroom Tennessee house on 10 acres for about $280,000 — a steal compared with most Florida real estate.
“We knew we couldn’t afford to get what we wanted down there. [We decided] this would be a better quality of life for our kids,” said Mr. Kilpatrick.
This remains the case even as Florida home mortgage rates have declined in the past two months, seemingly giving buyers more of an opening.
While school officials say a pause in the state’s breakneck enrollment growth will help them to catch their breaths after years of frenzied teacher hiring and building expansion, development officials are concerned that businesses will be deterred from moving to or expanding in Florida because of immense price appreciation from 2001-2005, and the possibility of not having enough workers.
Some officials insist that the surprising slowdown is a temporary blip, however, with school enrollment growth in Florida poised to accelerate later this decade because of rising births and immigration throughout the U.S. In addition, the weak housing market, including a 34 percent decline last month in sales of existing single-family homes in Florida.
Florida is home to four of the 10 most-overvalued markets in the U.S., with the Naples housing market leading the way. Still, many remain hopeful that conditions will approve.
“We will see the affordability of housing in Florida improve. Much of Florida is still cheaper than New York, Boston, California and other areas,” said David Denslow, an economics professor at the University of Florida.
Still, what’s happening in Florida contrasts sharply with school districts in other U.S. metro areas that have robust population growth. This fall, enrollment in the Wake County, N.C., public-school system, including Raleigh, rose 6 percent, or 7,388 students, to 127,767.
School growth rates are holding steady in Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County, the country’s fifth-largest school district. And enrollment in the suburban Atlanta district of Gwinnett County, Ga., increased by 5.1 percent to 151,903 students.
In Tampa, Shari Beaubien, principal at Chiles Elementary blames her school’s 10 percent enrollment dip — about 90 fewer students — on condo conversions. Four nearby apartment buildings became upscale condos. That pushed out many young families, and few newcomers have moved in.
When two apartment complexes in West Palm Beach for residents on public assistance became condos, enrollment at the nearest elementary school dropped by about 100 students, Palm Beach County Schools demographer Art Wittman says. In all, more than 12,000 rental units have gone condo.
Last year, the number of Floridians aged 4-19 rose 1 percent from a year earlier, its tiniest growth since 1991, according to Moody’s Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., research firm.
More empty nesters and other property owners without school-age children isn’t necessarily bad for local school districts and municipalities, which get to collect their property taxes without having to take additional students. The longer-term concern is homeowners often opposing increased school spending and frequently rejecting tax increases.
