Index Rates Orlando Real Estate Risk Low

The Orlando housing market has soared in recent years, but it is less likely to experience falling prices than most of major metropolitan areas in the U.S., the Orlando Sentinel reported Saturday.

According to a study conducted by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the average metro area out of 50 studied has a 28.8 percent chance of declining home prices during the next two years. Metro Orlando — comprised of Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties — has only a 17.9 percent chance of price declines, according to the company’s risk index.

While that estimate is up from 16 percent in April, it still comes in far below other segments of the South Florida housing market, including greater Fort Lauderdale (44.1 percent), Miami (35.9 percent) and vicinity, as well as Tampa-St. Petersburg (29.4 percent).

PMI said that nationally, the greatest housing-price risk is concentrated along the East and West coasts, with eight of the 13 highest-risk areas located in California and five in the Northeastern U.S. San Diego remains the country’s riskiest market, with a 59.9 percent chance of price declines by mid-2008. San Francisco moved into the top five for the first time with a 58.5 percent chance of a downward skid.

PMI’s risk index takes into account housing costs, labor statistics, and housing affordability as measured by local household incomes, home-price appreciation, and the costs of conventional Florida home loans. Also this week, RealtyTrac concluded that foreclosure rates continued to increase in Florida as well as nationally, though it appears to be leveling off somewhat.

Foreclosures in May were 28 percent higher than the same month a year ago, but only 2 percent higher than in April. Florida, with one new foreclosure filing for every 821 households, ranked as the eighth-busiest state for filings in May. Nationally, the rate was one filing for every 1,247 homes.